Articles by Peter Donisanu

Economic update: Recession risks on the rise

U.S. Growth Our latest estimates continue to suggest that economic growth in the U.S. will weaken in the coming year while the risk of a recession remains elevated.  We expect growth to come in around 2.1% YoY in 2020, slightly weaker than our expectation of 2.2% for 2019.  International Growth Globally, World GDP is likely to accelerate as emerging market economies (ex China) rebound from markedly low levels of growth in 2019.  We expect China’s economy to slow further in…


Let the good times roll: the beginning of the end?

Stock market prices continued to grind higher as economic data releases surprised to the upside this week.  Indeed, a host of indicators suggest to some that growth in the U.S. may in fact be improving after a softer showing in 2019 which has supported a rally in risk assets not just in the U.S. but globally this year.  A key question for investors and savers now, however, is whether the good times are just getting started or the data mark…


Personal financial playbook: your path to getting ahead

Households will face many near- and long-term financial market complexities and economic uncertainties in the years to come. A personal financial playbook can help people get ahead despite these challenges.   We believe that a flexible and adaptable personal financial playbook should include three important elements: 1) a well-defined statement of financial purpose, 2) prioritization of financial outcomes and 3) a financial operating plan. Partnering with a trusted advisor can also potentially multiply your chances of achieving your financial goals…


Acute threat: a looming U.S. recession

The threat of a U.S. recession will add to a number of looming issues contributing to heightened financial market and economic complexities and uncertainties in 2020. While some of the latest economic data suggest that growth in the U.S. economy remains steady, some key market and economic indicators are more consistent with a downturn, like the inverted yield curve. The health of the U.S. consumer is likely to hold the key to the health of the U.S. economy and the…


Getting ahead isn’t what it used to be

Various economic and market indicators suggest the U.S. economy is in a better spot today than a decade ago. While some are more well off today, the traditional life playbook for getting ahead has seemingly failed many households. Looking ahead, we believe that the key to households getting ahead financially will be for households to customize their own personal financial playbooks. By many measures the U.S. economy is in a better spot today than it was a decade ago.  In…


Brace for more uncertainties in 2020

An undercurrent of seemingly benign financial market and political developments are poised to move both prepared and unprepared households further away from their financial goals in the coming years. These issues include monetary policy-related financial market distortions, a drag from excessive global debt and the rise of geopolitical uncertainties. Households attempting to financially prepare for the future will need to contend with financial market distortions that induce greater risk taking, debt constrained growth that lead to increasingly more expensive investment…


The rise in wealth and a decline in financial security

Financial conditions have become increasingly complex and uncertain even as the economy and financial markets have gained in recent years. A lack of financial preparedness, fewer savings opportunities for a younger generation and retirement insecurity are just a few reasons why a growing number of people find it harder to get ahead in life financially. Nevertheless, we believe that the development of a customized personal financial playbook can help households navigate coming complexities and uncertainties and ultimately get ahead in…