economy

July 2, 2020

Are Stocks Setting Up for a Second Quarter Repeat?

U.S. stocks had a blockbuster second-quarter. Indeed, both the Dow and S&P 500 have posted their best returns in decades. How long can this outperformance last?  With market sentiment still generally positive, some investors are asking whether supportive central bank policies and hope for a rapid economic recovery may be the set up for a third-quarter market surge.  We believe that the dominant narrative that had supported the second-quarter rally is increasingly coming under pressure. Stretched asset valuations and a…

May 15, 2020

What Are the Chances of a V-Shaped Recovery?

So why should you care whether the US economy is in a recession? By many estimates, growth in the second quarter is likely to come in at an even more disappointing rate. With unemployment spiking and various leading indicators still in decline, there’s little doubt that a recession has arrived. An important question today is how deep this recession will be and how long it will last.     Now, beyond being an intriguing subject for economists and pundits in the…

May 8, 2020

What’s the Best Way to Protect Your Hard-Earned Wealth?

What’s the best way to protect your hard-earned wealth? That’s the million-dollar question that’s on a lot of people’s minds right now. The fact is that the coronavirus has demonstrated in absolute terms how an unexpected event can quickly take away your earnings ability and deplete your life savings.    Events surrounding the coronavirus have also demonstrated how life’s surprises can come at you from all directions. And when they do, your ability to build enduring wealth can evaporate in…

May 1, 2020

Keep Your Money Growing with Two Simple Steps

Growing financial wealth in today’s environment has been a struggle. Whether it’s the wide swings in asset prices that make it hard to decide whether to stay in or get out the markets to the dour economic conditions that have negatively affected business earnings. Finding the right strategy to grow your wealth in a world locked down truly has been a challenge. So, what can households and investors do to make the right decisions to grow wealth given today’s challenges?…

April 24, 2020

The First Step to Thriving Financially: Creating Wealth Today

What can individuals do during this downturn to thrive financially and build, or in many cases, rebuild wealth that has been lost in the past few weeks? By many measures, U.S. economic activity continues to grind to a halt on account of the COVID-19 containment efforts. This is evidenced in various data releases published this week. And it’s also a key reason why some Governors are eager to reopen their state economies. But the reality is that returning to normal…

April 17, 2020

Are Markets Getting the COVID-19 Recovery Wrong?

Various earnings reports, data releases and the IMF’s World Economic Outlook have served investors notice not to get ahead of themselves.  Truly, global risk assets have moved lower this week in response to historically disappointing corporate earnings and economic reports.  It’s certain that the stay-at-home orders in 42 states have essentially shut down the national economy.   And so, markets shouldn’t be surprised by the weak data, right?  In other words, this week’s bad news should have been taken in…

April 10, 2020

The CARES Act and Thriving During a Downturn

By the time the U.S. economy reopens weeks from now, tens of millions of people will have lost their jobs and thousands of small businesses will remain shuttered on account of the COVID-19 outbreak.  Estimates of the economic impact differ widely and it’s very likely that the ultimate financial cost of the coronavirus will take months if not years to fully understand.  As we pointed out in our report last week, Congress has stepped up to support ailing households and…

March 12, 2020

Is now the right time to get into the markets?

It would be an understatement to say that financial markets have experienced a bit of volatility this week.  In fact, the VIX surged to its highest level since the height of the Global Financial Crisis more than a decade ago.  To be sure, we believe that a host of issues ranging from the unmitigated spread of the coronavirus in the U.S. and around the world, a seeming concerted effort by the Saudis and Russians to flood the oil markets and…

March 5, 2020

Three quick steps to help manage financial anxieties during uncertain times

If the coronavirus, recession angst or elections are keeping you up at night or have generally increased your level of anxiety, you can take comfort in knowing that what you’re feeling is natural.  In fact, our brains are primed for an anxiety response during times of heightened uncertainty.  At least that’s according to one research paper published in the journal Nature.  And as the researchers point out, higher levels of uncertainty disrupt our ability to assign clear probabilities of success…

February 27, 2020

Economic update: Downside risks still increasing

The outlook for the U.S. and global economy has deteriorated yet again.  Unsurprisingly, the culprit behind the outlook downgrade has been news of the coronavirus’ continued spread.  To be sure, risk assets sold off this week and financial market volatility increased as concerns about the virus and its potential impact on the global economy dented investors’ up-until-recent euphoric sentiment.  More importantly, worries about the coronavirus come at a time when economic conditions in the U.S. and around the world remain…